Ranking the October Summer heat

Weather

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) — October is usually the start of cooler temperatures, but so far summer heat and humidity have been persistent.

Our average highs to start October reside in the mid to upper 60s. We have been on a stretch of above-average temperatures including the 80s over the weekend. The average last 80° day in Fort Wayne is October 4th, so we are about a week later than usual.

Our average high so far this month is over 77.3°, which ranks as the 7th warmest on record, but it isn’t our highs that are boosting our numbers it is mostly our overnight lows.

Sunday morning we tied a record for the warmest low temperature for October 10th of 66°, a mark that was set over 100 years ago in 1904.

Our average low this October sits at 58.8° good enough for 2nd warmest on record and the mean temperature, or the average between the highs and lows is good enough for 3rd highest to start the month at 68.1°.

The only years that are higher when it comes to mean temperature are 2018 and 2007, which come in at 69.5° and 69° respectively.

What hasn’t helped is the humidity, a humid airmass doesn’t cool efficiently leading to mild nights, and looking at the average dew point which we use to help measure humidity, we are well above a typical October, with an average near 63° when we should be closer to 49°.

Seeing summer temperatures linger into October may make you wonder, ‘What does this mean for snowfall this winter?’

Since 2000 our average first 1″ snow is December 9th and our average first 3″ snow is December 27th.

Let’s look back at 2007 and 2018, the two Octobers with a warmer mean temperature than this year, to see if there are any signs of what’s to come. In 2007 the first 1″ snow fell on the 4th of December so it came a bit earlier and 2018 was almost a month earlier than average on November 9th. As for the first 3″ snow, 2007 had at least 3″ on December 16th and while the first inch of snow was in November for 2018, we didn’t have 3 inches fall in Fort Wayne until January 12th of 2019.

All this to say, while we are very mild for the start of October when we look at the 2 other similar starts, there really isn’t any correlation to how our winter will turn out. In the coming month, the Live Doppler 15 Fury weather team will look at the long-term analysis and give our official winter outlook so be on the lookout for that in late November.


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