Understanding winter forecasts

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FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) – Snowfall forecasts are one of the more challenging aspects of meteorology. A small shift in the track of a system or temperatures being just a few degrees warmer or cooler could be the difference between a substantial snowstorm or just a few flakes mixing with rain.

Every day the Live Doppler 15 Fury Weather Team analyzes several models for weather information. By looking at these on a regular basis we gather an understanding of trends and which models are handling situations better or worse. Meteorologists look for consistency from models to have confidence in a forecast and if we see that several days out we will make sure to mention the time frame to watch, but we will be paying close attention…as should you…as things almost certainly will be changing as the event gets closer.

As for snowfall forecasts, the WANE Weather team will issue them when we are confident in accumulating snow. Make sure to be on the lookout for the yellow box that has the forecast issued date to make sure you are seeing the latest information on social media and that it isn’t outdated, such as this map is.

All official WANE Weather snow forecast maps will have a yellow “Forecast Issued…” box

During this time of year, some snowfall maps and models are shared on social media are meant to sensationalize a storm that in many cases is over a week out or an outlier of the rest of the models we use. Here at WANE, we are focused on making sure you are informed…not to put the fear of a major storm on your mind.

Make sure you have a trustworthy source for your winter weather information such as the WANE Weather App.

You can also follow our WANE 15 Meteorologists on social media below.

Chief Meteorologist Nicholas Ferreri

Meteorologist Greg Shoup

Meteorologist Adam Solarczyk

Meteorologist Joe Strus

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