Thursday Night Football features the Lions and the Packers in a divisional showdown. The Packers are home dogs at +1.5, and the game total is set at 45.5. Both teams are 2-1 for the season, but Green Bay is 3-0 against the spread. If Las Vegas has this one right, there should be some lead changes. With both David Montgomery and Aaron Jones still questionable, I’m setting my sights on two pass catchers for Thursday’s props: and neither of them is Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Let’s get weird.
Green Bay’s rookie tight end has run 89 routes, tied for ninth-most at the position, and he’s been targeted on 16.9% of those routes. That has resulted in an average of more than 41 receiving yards per game. Musgrave has exceeded this prop in two of three contests this season, and even if both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson return, I expect Matt LaFleur to make sure Musgraves sees targets vs. a Lions defense that has allowed the most targets (36) and most receiving yards (263) to tight ends this season.
Yep, I’m double-dipping on tight ends. Rookie tight ends, too! LaPorta is operating as the WR2 in this Lions offense. He has a 21.4% target share this season with an 88% catch rate. He’s averaging 10.33 yards per catch and six catches per game. He’s also exceeded this prop in two of three contests this year. In a game that is expected to be a close one, expect LaPorta to be connecting with Jared Goff.
Love has exceeded this prop in two of three contests this year, and he is averaging more than 21 rushing yards per game. The Detroit Lions have allowed an average of 23 rushing yards per game to QBs, and with Jones potentially somewhat limited if he returns, I like Love to exceed this prop. There could be a designed run play or two, and though Love has only been pressured 18% of the time this season, which is the best rate in the league, those pressures have resulted in seven scrambles for 11 yards per scramble.
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