Will there be another COVID-19 surge in Allen County after Labor Day?

Coronavirus

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) – New COVID-19 cases have plateaued in recent days in Allen County, but will that trend continue a few weeks from now after Labor Day weekend?

In the last year and a half, COVID-19 cases have typically risen in the weeks after a major holiday. Allen County Health Commissioner Matthew Sutter believes this trend will likely continue. How large that is remains to be seen.

“I wouldn’t necessarily expect this holiday to be different than any other holiday, where we’ve seen little jumps,” said Dr. Sutter.

To get a sense of where cases might head, let’s look back on Labor Day 2020. At the time, Allen County was averaging 52 new COVID-19 cases a day with a 7-day positivity rate of 6.3%. In the following weeks, new daily cases hovered between 40 and 50 until the worst surge of the pandemic began in early October.

A comparison of the state of COVID-19 in Allen County on Labor Day 2020 and 2021 (source: Indiana Department of Health)

On Monday, 142 Allen County residents tested positive for COVID-19. According to Indiana’s Department of Health, the county’s current 7-day positivity rate sits at 11.3%. The number of new cases being reported surpasses what was reported around this time last year, in large part due to the Delta variant.

Although the number of new cases is slowing down in the county, Dr. Sutter is not sure if that is a true indicator that the current surge is peaking. Dr. Sutter speculated that the number of new cases slowed down last week due to lower testing and delayed reporting from the holiday weekend.

“I’m hopeful that cases have plateaued and they start coming down, but we just don’t know that yet.”

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