Winter weather outlook

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) - The summer months of 2009 were quite cool, with the average temperature below 70 degrees across much of our area. Will the cool summer lead to an even colder winter? Not likely.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that El Nino will be a dominant climate factor this winter.

El Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The warm ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall - that, in turn, changes the strength and position of the jetstream.

And, the El Nino is expected to strengthen and persist through the winter months.

Meteorologist Sam Lashley says, "For a strong el Nino, we really see the affects here being mild, below normal snowfall, and dry."

Those factors are closely on track with the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. While the outlook for our area this winter calls for equal chances of above normal, below normal or near normal temperatures, past strong El Nino's indicate temperatures being a bit above average.

As a reality check, the coldest month is January, with daytime highs averaging 30.4 degrees and lows averaging 15.3 degrees.

Normal snowfall for our area is 32.4 inches per year and January is the most likely month for heavy snow. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal precipitation and below normal snowfall for our area.

But snow lovers, don't lose hope. "With el Nino, the jet stream sort of gets trapped to the north, and we don't get the real cold air. However, that jetstream is very close to the Great Lakes so if it shifts just a little bit to the south, we can get colder air and more Alberta type clippers that bring snow fall to the area. We could see bouts of colder weather and snowy weather at times but it may fluctuate, going back and forth throughout the whole winter," says Lashley.