Souder: Different Debates, different approaches

The following is a commentary from former Indiana Congressman Mark Souder: 

With four debates within one week, it is sort of like the baseball play-offs.  Each one has different strategic match-ups because polling and expectations are so different.

I referred to the Gubernatorial debate as “The Moustache, The Beard and the Next Governor of Indiana” debate because Pence was far ahead in the polls and clearly won the debate.  His only real opponent, John Gregg, has not clearly established his record or his goals so his challenge was much greater.  Now, like most Democrats, he is just resorting to calling his opponent an “extremist” – in the debate, in his public comments and even his ads.  It won’t work.  Pence is clearly the leader and likely to win by a large margin.

The Vice-Presidential debate between Biden and Ryan is likely to not matter much after the next Presidential debate.  If it does, it will be because of a mistake.  Biden’s role is to push Ryan, the less experienced debater, into a mistake – which could be tone or a poor job of explaining how his budget handles Medicare.  The public has factored in Biden’s propensity for gaffes, so I believe the pressure is all on Ryan.  He’s very skilled but this will not be easy for him.

The Senate debate Monday night between Richard Mourdock and Joe Donnelly is totally different.  The race is close according to polls, as would be expected after a divisive Republican primary.  Donnelly has not been able to get the number of voters supporting him up closer to 50% (it is still in the low 40s) and he’s missed the optimal time to do so.  But those who backed Lugar also have yet to united behind Mourdock.  Still, winning Republicans who are upset about losing a primary, is easier than convincing them to vote for a Senator who will side with Harry Reid and Barack Obama in organizing the country.   Joe will come across as knowledgeable and likable because he is.  Richard will need to show that he is not as rigid as claimed, is likable and capable, and most importantly, establish that this is really about which side you want America governed by: Obama’s liberalism or Romney’s conservatism.  I believe Mourdock will do so, and the polls will rapidly move his direction as they did after his debate with Lugar.

The Presidential debate Tuesday has all the pressure on the President.  The format, a town hall “short answer” free for all, better fits his sound-bite style so that, plus the media preferring a close race and generally supporting him, will likely result in the media calling the debate for the President.  At the same time, the last debate was so clearly pro-Romney, and the President’s inept handling of Libya and the Big Bird issue, makes one wonder.  It should be very interesting, though the last debate will matter the most.