Romney wins debate, but no knock-out

Unless you are hopelessly partisan, it is clear that Mitt Romney won the first debate.  But was it enough to propel him to victory?  Probably not but it is an important step.

In the first hour, Mitt Romney challenged the President aggressively.  The President, except when delivering his basic talking points, stumbled with words, hesitated often, showed tension, and all the other tell-tale signs of a debater on the ropes.  In the second hour, Obama recovered somewhat and did what he needed to do.

There were no truly memorable moments or great lines.  The closest was from Romney in response to the normal Democrat charge of “trickledown economics” to describe Republican economic strategy.  Romney referred to Obama believing in “trickle down government” because everything seemed to start in Washington.

It is important to remember that in a debate, usually the most important thing is to deliver some planned lines well so that your advertising post-debate can pound those points.  Far more people will see the ads than will see the debates, especially in swing states. 

The President delivered his key points, memorized, pretty well on Romney favoring the rich, student loans, Medicare and some health care points.  I heard his very effective (factually wrong but effective) ads in Colorado, Iowa and Florida.  So Obama accomplished his minimal goals of hammering his main points.

Still, I believe this debate will give Romney some important momentum.  Clearly Republicans are excited.  After months of hand-wringing worry, including by me, there is a sudden confidence that victory is possible.  You can’t win when your own side is doubtful you can win. 

President Obama clearly thought John McCain would show up and spent much of the night in somewhat of a state of shock.  So did a lot of Republicans.  Instead Mitt Romney defended conservative ideas, was confident, challenged the President, and took the battle to him.  Romney was certainly no McCain.

CBS immediate polling showed that pre-debate twice as many people thought Obama cared about them compared to Romney.  Post-debate it was 69% to 63%.  That statistic – Romney is an aloof rich guy – is amazing if correct.  It was the biggest problem Romney had. 

I expect the national polling to move to near even, with some polls slightly tilting each way.  Perhaps the President’s lead will go down from an average of 3% to 1%.  More importantly, I expect that Romney will have moved to a slight lead in the absolutely must win state for him of Florida and close the gap to 3-4% in Ohio, another state Romney must win (but Obama could lose & still win).  Probably the President’s huge lead in New Hampshire will disappear as well.  Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada are likely to still be with Obama but aren’t as critical to Romney.

The Vice-Presidential debate will seem important, and Biden should not be underestimated because he is a terrific debater, but the election is likely to come down to the last debate on foreign policy.  If Romney repeats his aggressive performance of tonight, he’s likely to win.  But it is still a long way to election day.

ROMNEY WINS DEBATE, BUT NO KNOCK-OUT