Pre-election poll results released

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) - The results of an exclusive poll conducted by WANE-TV, the News-Sentinel , and Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics show how voters are thinking as they head to the polls next week.  The poll was conducted  from 10/21/10 through 10/25/10.

 

Here is how 1600 likely & actual voters responded when asked, "If the election for U.S. Senator from Indiana were today, who would you vote for?"

54% Republican Dan Coats
32% Democrat Brad Ellsworth
  7% Libertarian Rebecca-Sink Burris
  4% Other
  3% Undecided

The margin of error for that question is +/- 2.5%.

That same sample was asked: "If the election for Indiana Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for?"

51% Republican Charlie White
31% Democrat Vop Osili
  7% Libertarian Mike Wherry
  5% Other
  5% Undecided

The margin of error for that question is +/- 2.5%.

Here are the responses from 400 likely & actual voters when they were asked, "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for?"

57% Republican Marlin Stutzman
32% Democrat Tom Hayhurst
   7% Libertarian Scott Wise
   2% Other
   2% Undecided

The margin of error for that question is +/- 5%.

As an exclusive portion of the poll, 400 likely & actual voters were asked, "In deciding who you will vote for in the race for U.S. House of Representatives, which one of the following influences your vote the most? Personal and moral integrity? Party affiliation? Expertise in addressing national concerns like the economy? Or protecting the interests most affecting northeast Indiana?

The responses:

39% Integrity
30% National concerns
20% Northeast Indiana issues
  8% Party affiliation
  3% Not sure

The margin of error is +/- 5%.

WANE-TV political analysts Kevin Knuth, a Democrat, and John McGauley, a Republican, think integrity ranked high on the list simply because it means something different to every voter.

"It depends on how you want to define integrity in this case," said Knuth.

McGauley agrees, "I think it wraps a lot of smaller issues together into one big number. What's that person's definition of integrity? Moral values? Perception of what's right and wrong in terms of spending? Is it their attitude toward the war? I think a lot of things get wrapped into that and it may sound like a lot of things to a lot of people. So I'm not necessarily surprised it's that high because it means a lot."  

When asked, "Which candidate best understands the issues of national importance?" the 400 likely & actual voters responded:

46% Republican Marlin Stutzman
29% Democrat Tom Hayhurst
19% Not sure
  6% Libertarian Scott Wise

The margin of error is +/- 5%.

The same group was asked, "Which candidate best understands the issues most important to northeast Indiana?"

48% Republican Marlin Stutzman
32% Democrat Tom Hayhurst
15% Not sure
  5% Libertarian Scott Wise

The margin of error is +/- 5%.

According to the poll, it looks like most Americans believe the country is headed off on the wrong track.  Of 1,600 likely & actual voters, only 25% said they believe we're headed in the right direction, compared to 71% who think we're not. (The margin of error is +/- 2.5%.)

The News-Sentinel's Kevin Leininger says he expected those results. "No surprise," said Leininger. "You look at the economy, unemployment, the wars going on, people are upset and afraid. And I think that figure and many others in the poll bear that out."

"I think that number's a little higher than national averages, but I think a lot of people feel that way. Unemployment's high. And that's what people are concerned about right now. Unemployment. Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. The number 1 issue this election," Knuth said.

He's right. Here are the results when pollsters asked, "Which one of the following is the single most important issue facing the United States?"

43% Economy
20% Moral direction
15% National debt
  8% Health care
  6% Education
  3% Immigration
  2% War in Afghanistan
  1% Other
  1% Not sure

The margin of error is +/- 2.5%.

Our sample then responded to the following question: "Do you think that the Tea Party movement is good for the country? Damaging to the country? Or makes no difference?"

58% think it's good for the country
23% think it's damaging for the country
19% think it makes no difference

The margin of error is +/- 2.5%.

John McGauley explained why he thinks so many people responded positively. "They perceive elected officials, government in general, as being stuck in this cycle of doing whatever it wants to and not listening to them. Right or wrong that's the way people see it. And I think that they view any kind of powerful outside influence as a good thing. Something that'll break us out of that cycle."

So who's behind the movement?

We posed the question: "Which of the following do you agree with more? Tea Party supporters are Republicans unhappy with the Republican Party. Or Tea Party supporters are Americans unhappy with both the Democrats and Republicans."

69% think Americans