Recession over in 2009?

AUBURN, IND. (WANE/AP) - There are strong words on the future of our economy, and surprisingly the news is good for a change. It involves a shocking prediction from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve publicly made in a “60 Minutes” exclusive airing on NewsChannel 15 Sunday night..

The Chairman gives a timeline of when we could pull out of the economic mess. NewsChannel 15 digs deeper to find out what's needed for that to happen.

When asked when she thought the recession would come to an end, Auburn-area resident Cheryl Moore starts out with “Oh gosh,” followed by a long sigh.

It seems the “R” word is on everyone's mind, and it's not always a comfortable topic.

"It's going to take two years, I feel, just to pull out from the hole we've dug ourselves into," said area resident Cheryl Monroe.

"I think a year to a year and a half before it's over. I think it's going to take that long for the job market to rebound," said area resident Pam Woodruff.

"In the next year or so I feel we're going to rebound, we're going to come back," said area resident Burton Byers.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seems to also feel that cautious optimism.

"I do think that we will get it stabilized and we will see the recession coming to an end probably this year," Bernanke said in the “60 Minutes” exclusive interview Sunday.

But a lot has to happen between now and December 31st for that to happen.

"The big IF of this is getting the banking sector steered into a different direction, or the right direction," said Cornerstone Wealth CEO David Hefty.

That includes increasing borrowing capabilities for consumers and building a solid foundation for the housing market. That could include a so-called Main Street Bailout.

"We have to step lightly as we're walking across these egg shells to figure out how to do this," Hefty said.

Hefty says the government is likely doing that as we speak. With many Americans forced to take pay cuts, many are in need of additional funds. And if the recession ends this year, there's still a long road to recovery.

"When a recession ends, it just simply means the economy stops contracting. It doesn't mean you get called back to work. It doesn't mean you have any new orders or sales or manufacturing. It doesn't mean that GM is still not facing bankruptcy," Hefty said.

Hefty says that if the recession ends this year, it could easily take another year-and-a-half for jobs to return. So while there is cautious optimism out there from Bernanke and other officials and advisors, the economy's health will ultimately come back in shifts over time, and not all at once.

From The Associated Press:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system.

Appearing on CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism this could be done.

Still, Bernanke stresses the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.

Bernanke says -- quote --"We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely." But he adds "until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery."

He says the government is working on a plan that he thinks will stabilize the financial system.

But Bernanke says even if the recession ends this year, the unemployment rate will keep climbing past the current 8.1 percent.

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)