Flu Future: H1N1 beginning or end?

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) - After the novel H1N1 virus first hit the United States in April, health officials have been preparing for a pandemic outbreak. The illness came back hard and fast in the fall.

"The issue today is we are seeing five times the number of patients we see in a normal flu season," Parkview Hospital Emergency Department Medical Director Dr. Tom Gutwein said. "This came on quickly and a little early."

Typical flu season is in the winter, and these high levels of flu in October are unpresidented, according to State Health Commissioner Dr. Judith Monroe. The H1N1 spike is also approaching historic levels.

Of all the patients going to reporting doctors, 10.4 percent had flu-like symptoms during the week of October 19th, according to the latest report from the state health department. The state record is 10.77 percent. The twenty-year record was set in the winter of 1999 when the flu vaccine didn't match the circulating flu strain.

Monroe expected the week of October 26th to be even higher.

Lutheran Health Network (LHN) also saw a surge in patients coming to the emergency room. The weeks of October 12th and October 19th saw ER patients up 30 percent to 50 percent from the beginning of the month. It could be a good sign, however, that last week LHN saw ER volume level off.

"That's not to say fewer people are getting the flu. People could now be taking the advice of health professionals and grabbing the phone to call their family physician before grabbing the car keys," LHN spokesman Geoff Thomas said.

Gutwein said levels at Parkview's ER also steadied. But, state officials said that might not be the case everywhere.

"There are periodic increases and decreases in activity, especially on the local level. But, on a state level, we continue to see increased levels of influenza activity," State Epidemiologist Pam Pontones said.

Dr. Monroe said while the H1N1 infection rate is high, the death rate isn't.

"This is a wider-spread disease [than seasonal flu] and we are at historic highs for influenze-like illness, so the smaller number of deaths and the larger number infected means the case fatality ratio is much smaller than what we see with seasonal flu," Dr. Monroe said.

About 700 to 800 people die every year in Indiana from seasonal flu. At last report, the state said ten people died in Indiana from H1N1-related complications. That number went up to 12 deaths, according to Allen County Health Department. A new state report will be released Wednesday.

So is this wave of H1N1 almost over? Heath officials NewsChannel 15 asked agreed it's only a guess, but some said there are signs the flu is winding down. Allen County's health department reported a downturn in ER visits last week compared with the previous week.

"I think it will be down significantly in the next three to four weeks. But we could see another spike in the spring and we could see a spike of seasonal flu in January and that would be another double whammy for us," Dr. Gutwein said.

Only time will tell if this H1N1 outbreak is almost over, but in the meantime, health officials are still asking those who qualify to get vaccinated. Everyone should also practice good hand-washing, cover their cough and sneezes, and stay home from work or school if they feel sick to help prevent spreading the virus.