Health Dept: H1N1 could be losing steam

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) - Think of the H1N1 flu virus as a roller coaster. At the beginning there's always a pretty big drop or "peak."

But, that's never the end of it, there's always a few more along the way. That's the way health officials are characterizing this new virus.

"Obviously we are at very high levels of activity, we are clearly in a pandemic with the spread of this particular virus," said Dr. Judy Monroe, Indiana State Health Comissioner.

There were nine H1N1 deaths just last week in Indiana bringing the total to 19. Health officials are seeing record numbers of the illness. But, last week, hospital visits were down and school attendance rates were up.

"It's encouraging to see less visits to the emergency department but it's still too early for us to know for sure when we are going to see the peak of this particular wave," said Monroe.

Health officials say there's a chance we're past the first drop on this ride, but take a look at the numbers.

In a typical 16 week Indiana flu season, 40 to 50 people on average die per week from the seasonal flu. Last week nine people died from H1N1, but only 19 in total.

"Because we are seeing a lot of cases the case fatality ratio is not alarming I mean we would expect to see more deaths," said Monroe.

However, the seasonal flu affects people over 64, while the H1N1 deaths are impacting a younger generation.

Now the hope is the remaining peaks on our ride won't be bigger than the first one.

"We may see this decline and come January, February the weather gets cold very dry and we may even see a steeper peak at that time," said Monroe.

NewsChannel 15 went to the Carew Medical Park in Fort Wayne to ask people if they're less worried because of this new information.

"I'm more concerned because I'm seeing more people, more people that's close to me, family members and things that are coming down with the virus," said one local man.

"I think this week was the first week I heard that I know got it so I'm a little bit more concerned now it's a little bit more real right in my backyard," said another local man.

Health officials believe the second wave could hit in January or February. So far 666,000 vaccines have been ordered. That represents about 9 percent of the Indiana population.